Build Your Business Like a Wargamer: What If Luck Fails?

Authored by: Dirk Vander Noot

I’ve recently asked several successful founders what truly made the difference in their journey. Surprisingly, most gave the same two-word answer: hard work and luck.

We all have a different definition of what luck is. You may have also heard the quote, “I would rather be lucky than good.” attributed to Lefty Gomez the Professional Baseball Pitcher. You may have heard it from somewhere else though as it has been reiterated many times in the past century, especially when concerning extreme cases of business success. So today’s question is: “What does luck have to do with it?” To answer this question I will be turning to another one of my favorite wargame systems, One Page Rules, a series of fast-paced miniatures strategy games where luck plays a visible role. 

When is Luck a Factor?

In wargaming, it is simple to tell when luck plays a role, it’s when we roll the dice^2. In these games we can then calculate the odds of success or failure, determined by what our goal is and the statistical analysis or “dice math”. Here is the interesting note though, what separates those who are great at these wargames from casual players is their ability to manage what they can control so well that even if their dice rolls are poor, they still wind up ahead. We can do this in business too, and the smaller your team, the greater your ability to pivot when the odds don’t favor you.

But we don’t roll physical dice in business, so how do we know when luck is a factor? We have to be honest with ourselves about what we are and are not in control of. The economy, the market, the weather, an unexpected supply delay or even a new team member not showing up are all examples of the invisible dice we roll. 

How to Plan for Luck

Unlike dice games, we can’t just calculate the odds for every uncontrollable event in a day. When it is out of our control, we have to accept that sometimes to move forward we have to take a risk. So instead, we focus on what we can control. In One Page Rules and other war games, our soldiers (pieces) get a maximum movement measured in inches. The difference is while a casual player typically jumps in and moves the entire maximum movement, professionals only do so on certain occasions. What happens next is that while the casual player’s pieces are completely out in the open to get obliterated, the professionals have a more fortified position, or the option to quickly move into one if things aren’t going their way. They put themselves in a position to have a viable plan B that still moved them forward.

When Luck Doesn’t Go Our Way

As previously mentioned, a professional wargamer can still win even if none of the dice rolls go their way. Even when the odds are in their favor, they don’t count on things going their way. They’re prepared with a backup plan—and ready to act on it—just like packing a reserve parachute before jumping out of a plane.

What is your backup plan? If that team member doesn’t show up today or tomorrow, what happens? Many of us founders/owners take on the responsibility of getting it done ourselves. But this is hardly scalable and often will take us away from working on our businesses' continued growth and success. Because your time is valuable, instead, build a 'Plan B Lite': a quick-to-plan, easy-to-activate set of actions that will occur if plan A doesn’t go well. Once plan B is in place, now it is up to you as a leader to ensure your business is positioned to keep plan B viable anytime a pivot from plan A is required. Don’t forget to review your backup plans at least quarterly as business conditions change and they become outdated and no longer viable.

Conclusion

At the intersection of hard work and luck lies the real game of business. You can’t always control the dice, but you can control how you play the board. By recognizing where luck factors in, owning what’s within your control, and preparing lightweight, actionable backup plans, you’re not just reacting to chance—you’re strategically positioning yourself to keep moving forward even when the odds don’t go your way.

Whether it’s the economy, a no-show, or a delayed shipment, the key is to stay flexible and forward-moving. Just like a skilled wargamer, your strength comes not from expecting perfect outcomes, but from making solid choices that keep your momentum intact even when the odds don’t favor you.

Make your backup plans light. Make them smart. And most of all, make them ready. Because luck will always play a role—but with the right mindset and preparation, it doesn’t get to decide the final outcome.

Take 15 minutes today to identify one key process in your business and map your own Plan B Lite for it, your future self will thank you.